By Peter L. Bernstein

''A lot has occurred within the monetary markets due to the fact that 1992, while Peter Bernstein wrote his seminal Capital rules. fortunately, Peter has taken up his facile pen back to explain those alterations, a digital revolution within the perform of making an investment that is based seriously on advanced arithmetic, derivatives, hedging, and hyperactive buying and selling. This tremendous and eminently readable publication is not likely to be handed because the definitive chronicle of a really old era.''

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Kahneman had conducted an experiment with two different audiences. Although he offered both audiences an identical set of choices, he presented these choices in different settings that led to strikingly different results. He asked each audience to imagine a community preparing for the outbreak of a dreaded disease. The experts have predicted the disease will kill 600 people if nothing is done, but they offer two different programs to deal with the contingencies. * Campbell (2006). qxd 3/23/07 8:44 AM Page 7 Who Could Design a Brain .

There is a tipping point somewhere for every manager, regardless of skill and style, which explains why some management organizations close their funds to new money in order to prevent just such an avalanche. After that happens, identifying their past skills is of little use to the investor who is not already a stockholder in those funds. The long history of mutual funds shows that superior performance, even in the short run, tends to attract new assets that swell the size of the portfolio under management.

Shleifer and Vishny build their case on an argument describing the differences between the world in the pages of textbooks and the world where real investors are making decisions: Textbook arbitrage in financial markets requires no capital and entails no risk. In reality, almost all arbitrage requires capital and is typically risky. qxd 3/23/07 8:53 AM Page 27 The Strange Paradox of Behavioral Finance 27 relatively small number of highly specialized investors using other people’s capital. Such professional arbitrage has a number of interesting implications for security pricing, including the possibility that arbitrage becomes ineffective in extreme circumstances when prices diverge far from fundamental values.

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